Last week, the market experienced some early-week volatility but still managed to hit all-time highs, thanks to softer-than-expected CPI data and strong tech earnings driving the AI-thematic stocks. This week, however, a sector that rarely earns the headlines may become one of the most talked-about: agriculture commodities and agriculture related stocks.

The catalyst: the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday, October 30. You’ve likely already heard that China has significantly pulled back on agricultural purchases from the United States in recent years. But this year in particular stands out. China has yet to purchase any new crop U.S. soybeans, or soybean oil, which has had a major impact on domestic producers, especially since U.S. farmers are well into the harvesting process for this year’s crop and are already planning acreage for next year.

Another major headwind for U.S. soybean producers is the lack of storage capacity, both on-farm and off-farm, which remains constrained. That limited storage access raises costs for holding harvested crops, adding further pressure to the U.S. agricultural economy.

Meanwhile, China has turned to other origins to satisfy its soybean needs, notably countries such as Argentina and Brazil. These countries have captured market share from the U.S. with the help of weaker currencies, which make their soybean and other oilseed crops comparatively “discounted” versus U.S. prices.

One of the biggest “wins” this week for President Trump could be securing a commitment from China to renew U.S. soybean purchases. If this sounds familiar, it is. Back in his first term, President Trump and President Xi signed a non-binding phase-one agreement with China to purchase more than $32 billion in U.S. agricultural products over two years. The deal fell well short of expectations and was largely forgotten once the COVID-19 pandemic became the major focus. However, if the U.S.–China meeting yields any progress, a purchase agreement for agricultural products could be an early sign of broader advances in trade relations.

Given this backdrop, futures markets for soybeans and corn for that matter are expected to see elevated volatility next week in anticipation of a possible announcement. Agriculture-related companies such as Deere & Company (DE), Caterpillar (CAT), and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) may stand to benefit as well.

Farmers, investors, and commodity strategists should keep a close eye on the upcoming U.S.–China meeting. A revival of Chinese soybean purchases from the U.S. could relieve pressure on U.S. growers, strengthen futures prices and boost related equities.

Equally, continuation of the current sourcing shift away from the U.S. could mean prolonged stress for U.S. soybean producers and could impact planted acreage for the 2026/2027 season. With storage bottlenecks, global competition from South America, and geopolitical trade leverage all in play, this week’s developments may mark a key inflection point in the grains markets.

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