Amazon Prime Day 2025 is scheduled to run from July 8th to July 11th, extending to a four-day event this year. This is the longest duration Prime Day has ever been and double from last July. Exclusively for Amazon Prime members, it offers deals across numerous product categories, including everything from electronics, kitchen and home goods, beauty and apparel, to back-to-school supplies.

Investors are expressing optimism about Amazon's financial performance, with Prime Day anticipated to significantly boost the second-quarter financial report. Competition is also heating up in the ‘Sale Days’ game with retailers Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), Best Buy (BBY) and Macy’s (M) among others.

According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. retailers are expected to drive a record $23.8 Billion in online spend from July 8 to 11, representing 28.4% growth year-over-year (YoY)—and $9.6 billion more than the comparable period last year. This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season. Adobe’s report provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe is forecasting that U.S. retailers will offer discounts most commonly between 10% and 24%. Adobe expects apparel to see the biggest discounts, followed by electronics, televisions, appliances, and toys.

JPMorgan expects about 10% year-over-year growth each day in first-party, third-party, and physical store sales relative to Prime Day 2024 during the four-day event, and also believes Prime Day's financial benefits extend well beyond the 4-day event period. They note that while e-commerce is a big chunk of Amazon’s revenue, it’s the least profitable on a percentage basis.

AI may come into play also after Amazon launched its chatbot Rufus last year. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe observed the first material surge in generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link). Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024, traffic from generative AI sources increased by 1,300% compared to the prior year. During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% YoY.

So, what does this mean for investors? The stock is up only 1.86% this year as of Monday’s closing price and is still off 7.9% from all-time highs of $242 from early February. Consumer spending is firming as a solid jobs market and 4.1% unemployment rate may signal optimism for shoppers. The extended Prime Day comes as Americans are grappling with concerns about tariffs and the broader economy.

Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy stated last week that he expects shoppers will be excited about the longer discount window, "especially at this time, where people are still a little worried about what's going to happen with trade and continuing to have lower prices." Will discounts or potential tariff implications eat into the margins on sales? Adding two days to a historically banner sales record may provide even more optimism for investors in Amazon, especially when markets are near all-time highs. Amazon is not immune from market forces, but some traders may feel good data may provide the lift for shares to re-capture those all-time highs.

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