Crude oil experienced turbulence last week after opening Sunday evening above the $62 level, only to fade lower throughout the week. Technically, WTI hit a key area of resistance at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart. Oil continues to form relatively lower lows and lower highs, keeping the broader trend under pressure.

Many traders, however, are closely watching the $61 level as an inflection point — one that likely won’t hold for long. Either oil bulls defend this consolidation low, or prices continue to drift in the primary direction. The coming week presents two potential catalysts that could spark volatility: one geopolitical and one tied to OPEC+.

A potential flashpoint in the Caribbean between the United States and Venezuela could temporarily lift oil prices. While we’ll avoid delving into the political aspects, if tensions escalate further, markets may begin pricing in short-term disruptions to Venezuela’s export capabilities. Although Venezuela is not a top-tier global exporter, its output is still meaningful enough that even brief disruptions could be felt in the market.

Venezuela’s oil is heavier and high in sulfur, a key input for refining diesel, plastics, and industrial materials. The U.S. continues to import Venezuelan crude, averaging around 166,500 barrels per day in October, making Venezuela the fourth-largest supplier of crude to the U.S.

Although this situation keeps evolving, there’s another event that is on the calendar. OPEC+ will meet on Sunday to review market conditions and likely comment on recent Russian sanctions that could affect oil logistics in East Asia. The market expects a modest production increase of roughly 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with the group’s previous adjustment.

While not a dramatic shift, such a move signals that OPEC+ remains willing to address near-term supply challenges and maintain flexibility in production policy. It also suggests the group’s intent to preserve or expand market share, a stance that could put competitive pressure on U.S. shale producers.

Oil markets are entering a pivotal stretch marked by both geopolitical and structural uncertainty. Traders should watch whether U.S.–Venezuela tensions flare into a short-term supply concern and how OPEC+ balances production strategy against the backdrop of sanctions and shifting demand. With WTI testing key technical support, this weekend’s developments could set the tone for whether crude stabilizes — or breaks decisively lower into November’s trading range.

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