Crude oil continues to trade at elevated levels as the Iran conflict enters its eighth week, with physical markets facing persistent supply-side pressures and tanker logistics growing increasingly chaotic. A telling example: two Russian tankers loaded with diesel and originally bound for Brazil have diverted course to sell their cargo to other buyers. With oil on water (floating storage) tightening, expect more of the same opportunistic rerouting from major exporters in the weeks ahead.

U.S. petroleum and other liquids exports are still projected to climb over the next two weeks as foreign tankers arrive to source American supplies in place of lost Gulf volumes. This surge in medium and heavy sour crude exports — enabled in part by releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) — is only a short-term fix. If the disruption persists, domestic supplies of medium and heavy sour grades could tighten meaningfully through the summer, keeping retail prices elevated and adding fresh pressure to inflation metrics.

From a technical standpoint, Brent crude (/BZ) remains in a bullish formation with the primary trend still pointed higher. Over the past month, however, price action has carved out a bull flag — a consolidation pattern within the broader uptrend. Two weeks ago, Brent tested the 50-day simple moving average, which held as support. It is now pressing against the upper resistance of the flag, a level that could trigger a breakout and open the door to a retest of $119. The daily MACD crossed bullishly to close out last week, and the RSI has broken its downtrend.

For now, crude has consolidated in both price and time. The coming sessions will reveal whether this resolves as an upside breakout or a breakdown below the $85 level.

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