After the buildup into Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings last week and a relatively tame response, earnings season for the majors has wrapped up. Now the focus shifts to macroeconomic data, and this week will be crucial in setting the tone for September. Historically, September is one of the most volatile months, with quarterly options expiration, the FOMC meeting to decide the next step for interest rates, and institutional traders preparing for quarterly rebalancing into year-end.

The week begins with ISM Manufacturing data, which has generally been bearish for markets. Post-COVID, the manufacturing sector has faced weak new order trends, elevated input prices, and labor shortages due to a lack of skilled workers. The key component to watch will be Prices Paid, a leading inflation gauge. When paired with the ISM Services PMI, it provides an important read on inflationary pressures.

Midweek brings labor market updates. The JOLTs report tracks monthly job openings (excluding farming), and while openings remain elevated post-Covid, the trend has been declining. A reading of 7.24 million is expected; a weaker number could add to the Fed’s rationale for starting a rate-cut cycle.

And Thursday, the ADP Employment Report will be closely watched. Following the downward BLS revisions of 258,000 to May and June payrolls, which raised questions about labor market strength, and President Trump questioning the BLS’s data reliability, the ADP figures may carry extra weight. Economists expect 229,000 new private-sector jobs in August.

The week ends with the BLS Non-Farm Payroll report. Markets expect just 74,000 jobs added in August, a low bar that raises the risk of volatility if missed. With doubts about BLS data integrity and seasonally weak August prints, this report could be a market mover. However, it’s often followed by a stronger September report, boosted by back-to-school hiring, seasonal government jobs, and construction projects wrapped before winter.

Investors should prepare for a hectic week of economic releases. The Fed’s next move will likely hinge on Friday’s jobs data, making this one of the most pivotal weeks of the quarter.

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