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Market Minute: Weekend Spotlight on Serve Robotics (SERV)

Robots! We use them in surgery, in agriculture, factories, and a few restaurants even use them as cooks. They save human labor, support accuracy, and can even perform dangerous tasks with ease. But these robots are largely stationary, or work within a limited, controlled area such as an Amazon (AMZN) warehouse floor. The next step is bringing them out into the wider world.

Serve Robotics (SERV) builds autonomous sidewalk delivery robots. Spun off from Uber (UBER) in 2021, it has both Uber’s backing and Nvidia’s (NVDA). We had CEO Ali Kashkani, who has a doctorate in Robotics, on this week to talk about what the company does and where it’s headed. He noted that they have doubled their fleet size in a year, and recently acquired Vebu, a company with the goal of automating the entire food supply chain. Serve is looking to become a “one-stop shop” for restaurants looking for automation.

Several companies – and thus, the market – have been focused on autonomous driving. Tesla (TSLA) has made it a central pitch, while Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo is quietly and clearly leading the way. Driving is incredibly complicated, and it will still take years and billions of dollars to create a safe, functioning system that can be deployed across the U.S., rather than just the parts with year-round warm weather. Cars are also large and expensive to build and have limited access to the world – an autonomous delivery car would still need a good deal of human intervention to make its drop-offs. So, a smaller vehicle might be ideal for the functionality we’re looking for.

However, one of the main issues I see facing Serve Robotics is adoption. People aren’t used to seeing robots scuttle about. Their smaller bodies can navigate sidewalks but can also be knocked into – and are potentially vulnerable to vandalism or theft. The possibility of causing injury to pedestrians should also be taken into account, as with any revolutionary technology there is a thin PR line to walk – and a Californian friend of mine has seen one drive into someone’s leg from behind. Of course, its acquisition of Vebu means it has more to play with: Kashkani highlighted an “auto-cado” machine for processing avocados.

Another is that the delivery robots are not truly autonomous – A.I. has not developed to the level required, although recent breakthroughs have obviously sent Nvidia soaring. The systems continually learn and get better, but issues with ChatGPT inventing information, and A.I.’s overall hunger for human-created data, mean there are limitations to the system. It’s possible we could hit the next 50-year wall in tech development somewhere in this field, limited by our own Frankenstein-esque capabilities in creating true intelligence.

Serve has accounted for this by having the robots contact employees for navigation help, but that means there is still a flesh-and-blood hand on the reins. At scale, are the robots plus guiding employees more or less expensive than human deliverers like Uber, DoorDash (DASH) and others already rely on? Investors should consider whether they’re willing to commit to a long-term story, or if they think this is a come-and-go fad.

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