This should be the most-watched inflation print in some time. Stocks have been under pressure for a few weeks in anticipation of it, and Treasury bonds and the dollar have been announcing its importance for months. 

With the S&P 500 already having broken support, stocks really need a bounce. The best thing bulls have going for them technically is a positive hammer candle from Monday, which effectively means they were held underwater to the max but came up for air. 

If CPI comes in line, it will mark an increase from the previous reading to just under 2.9%. That's getting pretty toasty, but the question is if investors have already done enough to prepare by selling bonds and buying the dollar for three months straight. If that's the case, bonds may not have to react too abruptly, but watch the short end of the curve.

If the 2-year yield rises faster than 10-year, that's a sign we're getting into problematic territory and any relief rally in stocks may be a bull-trap. If the number's in line and bonds rally or the curve continues to steepen, maybe the market can take it in stride and see some real recovery. 

If CPI is hot, watch out. Stocks could drop and head for lower levels and bonds can probably sell off some more. This is where the short end really matters. If yields rise a lot but the curve flattens, that means the Fed may have to consider hiking again and the dollar would likely rip, putting pressure on assets across the board.

If it's cool, look for lots of reversals: a drop in yields and a big decline in the dollar, and likely a big move in stocks, which could push them back towards recent highs.

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