Tesla (TSLA) stock ended the first quarter with a whimper on Monday, falling another 1.7%. The stock dumped nearly 36% for the quarter, which was the worst quarter on record. Tesla’s stock entered 2025 with high expectations, buoyed by Elon Musk’s prominent role in the Trump administration and promises of growth through new vehicle models, humanoid robots, and autonomous driving technology. This decline follows a peak in December 2024, when TSLA hit a record high of $488 per share after Donald Trump’s election victory fueled speculation about favorable policies for Tesla. The shares have pulled back nearly 47% since the all-time highs.

Tesla’s 1Q 2025 delivery numbers, due to be reported on Wednesday, April 2, are a focal point for investors. Early in the quarter, Wall Street analysts were optimistic, projecting deliveries as high as 464,000 vehicles. However, as challenges mounted, estimates have been revised downward significantly. Tesla’s company-compiled consensus, based on 27 analysts, now stands at 377,592 deliveries—representing what could be the company’s worst quarterly performance in two years, according to Electrek.

Several factors are contributing to this anticipated shortfall. The transition to the updated Model Y (dubbed “Juniper”) has disrupted production across Tesla’s global factories, throttling sales of its best-selling vehicle. Additionally, weakening demand in key markets like Europe and China has raised red flags. Tesla’s sales in Europe plunged 42% in the first two months of 2025, while China saw a nearly 50% drop in February, overshadowed by rival BYD’s soaring performance. These declines come despite a robust EV market, suggesting Tesla-specific issues at play.

A significant headwind in Tesla’s 1Q narrative is the growing backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement. As a key figure in the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk has pushed for aggressive federal spending cuts, sparking protests dubbed “Tesla Takedown.” Over 200 demonstrations occurred across the U.S., Canada, and Europe on March 29, with activists targeting Tesla dealerships and charging stations. Reports of vandalism and a vocal consumer backlash have led some analysts to argue that Musk’s polarizing persona is damaging Tesla’s brand.

Tesla’s 1Q performance is also not immune from the broader economic environment. President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on auto imports, set to take effect in early April, have rattled markets. While Tesla, with its significant U.S. manufacturing footprint, may be less impacted than competitors, the threat of higher costs and disrupted supply chains has weighed on investor sentiment.

Tesla’s 1Q 2025 performance sets the stage for a critical year. While the company faces immediate hurdles—production hiccups, brand damage, and softening demand—its long-term vision remains ambitious. Musk has promised a robotaxi service launch in Austin by June and unsupervised FSD across most U.S. markets by year-end, pending regulatory approval. As Tesla navigates this turbulent quarter, one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the outcome of 1Q could shape perceptions of the company and its bifurcating CEO for months to come. Investors will be watching closely as the numbers roll in, hoping for clarity amid the storm as the bar is set low for the results.

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