Bitcoin futures (/BTC) have consolidated in recent weeks as traders assess the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on Mon., Jan. 20, which is expected to lead to a more crypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commissioner in Paul Atkins and then a potential broader overhaul of the SEC’s crypto policies. It’s still unclear how exactly everything will play out from a legislative perspective, but /BTC was up about +43% from the presidential election on Nov. 5 as of yesterday’s close, so traders seem to be feeling more bullish about their prospects for changes to the rules of the game.

However, bitcoin futures retreated from the all-time highs of 108,960 on Dec. 17 and are down about -9% from there in today’s premarket trading. The /BTC contract saw some chop in recent weeks, with price zigzagging back and forth around the confluence of its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (now near 97,184) and a volume node centered roughly around 96,500 as it made successively lower closing highs. On the other hand, price also mostly stayed above its recent low close of 91,615 from Nov. 26 and is making a series of higher closing lows, which then presents a more triangular shape overall. This sharp rally spurred by a major fundamental change and then followed by a period of sideways-to-downward consolidation in a roughly triangular shape could present a setup for a bull pennant-type of pattern.

Price is right on the verge of breaking above the trendline sloping down from the all-time highs, and momentum could follow suit if that happens. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, is poised for its own breakout from a very similar trendline. This could provide further credence to an upside move, especially if both price and RSI take out their respective recent highs from Jan. 6.

If price does push above the trendline, there is another potential source of resistance just above; the +1 yearly Standard Deviation Channel sits near 102,752. From there, the old closing high of 106,985 is an important mark to beat and the +2 SDC channel currently projects further potential resistance near 118,024. To the downside, the recent floor that was established near 91,615 is a key point to watch. Further downside action could result in tests of the 63-day EMA near 89,760 and the yearly Linear Regression Line (line of best fit) near 87,481, with another critical point being the post-election gap up lows near 80,670.

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