Despite hitting new all-time intraday highs recently, Nasdaq-100 futures have made little overall progress since the rollover to the September contract on Jun. 14. The /NQ contract has established a range between 19,726 to the downside and the highs of 20,371 to the upside – but sideways is better than down for the bullish crowd, and the prevailing trend still seems to be toward the upside.

First, an upward trendline beginning with a low point on May 2 and connecting to the next set of lows from early June is still in play. Additionally, price is above most of the commonly followed moving averages, such as the 21-day, 63-day, and 252-day Exponential Moving Averages, all of which are still trending upward. Consider as well that price held a key supportive area in the recent contract change gap during its most recent downswing.

However, momentum is where some cracks start to show by a couple of different measures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed below the overbought area, which is a bearish sign, on Jun. 24, and also broke an upward trendline beginning with the low reading on Apr. 19. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), another way to examine momentum, also showed a bearish crossover on Jun. 28. This does not necessarily translate to an impending breakdown in price. Rather, it illustrates that the pace of the gains is slowing, which is reflected in the largely sideways price action.

If price regroups and takes out the all-time highs, one potential stopping point could be the yearly +1 Standard Deviation Channel, which currently comes in near 20,854. To the downside, look to the confluence of the 21-day EMA, the pre-contract change highs, and the previously mentioned trendline between roughly 19,640-19,700.

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