2025 brings a season of change. But for some industries and heavyweights, it is simply the flip of the calendar. So where do the opportunities lie in 2025? Adam Kobeissi, founder and Editor in Chief of “The Kobeissi Letter” gave us some of his predictions in a recent Market Overtime Interview. 

DOES GOLD STILL HAVE SOME METTLE?

Gold had a massive bull run in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500. That trend occurred even as the dollar strengthened, which is not traditionally the case. Typically, if the dollar strengthens that performs as a headwind for gold. Kobessi says “I think we'll see 3,000 in gold”. He also pointed to record purchases of gold by central banks around the globe, namely China, India, and Turkey among others. He called that a “perfect recipe for higher gold prices.”

THE OTHER BULL RUN

At times some crypto enthusiasts argued that Bitcoin could be similar to gold and viewed as a safe haven, and it moved as such. But the momentum and narrative around it shifted. It is no longer a fringe player gaining wider adoption especially in 2024 and that is expected to continue in 2025 with a President Trump 2.0 administration viewed as friendlier to the asset class. Kobeissi says it “is the ultimate definition of a momentum trade” and volatile, but “Bitcoin itself being now the seventh largest asset in the world – it's almost like it's too big to fail at this point.”

MARKET TRENDS

Market participation has evolved over the years, and Kobeissi argues that the death of the retail trader was overblown. Or maybe there was a resurrection of sorts because the retail trader came back with something to prove during the pandemic with investing inflows increasing since 2020. And Kobeissi believes that has changed the way markets move. Kobeissi’s bull prediction for the S&P 500 is 7,000. He thinks the momentum trade will continue, but not without big swings. And with those swings he sees more buying of the dip.

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