Setting aside the question of rate cuts momentarily, let’s look ahead to FedEx’s 1Q25 earnings Thursday after the bell. Zacks’ consensus estimate is for earnings per share of $4.87 and revenue of $22.12 billion. The stock is up over 15% year-to-date and currently has an implied move of over $17. Analysts will also be watching the metrics for average daily package volume, average daily freight pounds, and price per package, as well as its domestic vs international business. It may also report an impact from the CrowdStrike (CRWD) outage snarling its operations. Because of its place in the logistics chain, some use FedEx’s results to help gauge consumer health, an important area to measure as the Fed aims to avoid recession.

In that vein, investors should pay attention to any forward guidance, particularly as the holiday season begins to ramp up, FedEx’s busiest time of year. Seasonal hiring plans and other demand forecasts could put pressure on the stock one direction or the other. Another note is that its rival UPS (UPS), which last reported in late July, disappointed on its 2Q earnings and has plummeted nearly 20% year-to-date, though whether that is due to a company-specific or sector-specific issue remains to be seen.

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