- Market Minute
- Posts
- Market Minute: S&P 500 Technicals Starting to Crumble
Market Minute: S&P 500 Technicals Starting to Crumble
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -2.3% yesterday as major companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) saw disappointing reactions to their quarterly earnings results, and early trading in equity index futures suggests further weakness to come today. For perspective, the SPX is down about -4.2% off the all-time highs of 5,669.67 as of yesterday’s close and came to rest just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average – so, not exactly a head-for-the-hills collapse, but more than enough to sting bullish traders caught flat-footed by the decline. However, technical indicators are starting to show some potentially worrying signs of trend rollover.
First, price broke through an upward trendline starting with the lows from May 31, two days after hitting the all-time highs, and yesterday broke through a longer-term upward trendline beginning on Apr. 19. Price also has been bouncing around the 21-day Exponential Moving Average for the past week, but yesterday made a strong negative close below this key indicator. The slope of the 21-EMA itself has also turned down now, which is another bearish signal. Yesterday’s dropoff also sent price below the yearly Linear Regression Line, which came in around 5,522, and represents an idea of “fair value” for traders to consider.
Momentum is also on the move to the downside. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently broke through its own upward trendline matching the price activity beginning from Apr. 19 after exhibiting some bearish divergence, meaning that price was making new closing highs but RSI was making lower highs. In this case, the price action did move lower after this bearish signal and RSI has now fallen below the 50-midline that separates bullish and bearish momentum.
Many traders likely are now concerned about potential support levels. For starters, the 50-day SMA will be a crucial point for price to hold in today’s trading session. Just below that, there is a gap from mid-June between about 5,375 & 5,402 that represents a potential support zone. This area holds extra importance as well because it also contains the 63-day Exponential Moving Average, which is another potentially supportive indicator. If the bulls regroup and price starts moving up again, look for the yearly Linear Regression Line and then the 21-day EMA, near 5,522 and 5,527 respectively.
Morning Minute
Featured Clips
Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.
Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc
Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email [email protected].
See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.
Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.