The U.S. stock market has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks, driven by a combination of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the kick-off to first-quarter earnings season. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back winning sessions on Monday, April 14, 2025, stock futures remained largely unchanged on Tuesday as investors braced for fresh economic data and corporate earnings reports. The tech sector has been a key driver of recent gains, buoyed by temporary tariff exemptions, but uncertainty surrounding the longevity of these exemptions and mixed economic signals have left investors questioning whether the market has found a bottom or if more volatility lies ahead.

President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda has been a dominant force shaping market sentiment. On April 2, 2025, Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, including a 10% baseline duty on all U.S. imports and higher rates on specific trading partners, such as 145% on Chinese goods and 25% on vehicles from Canada and Mexico. These announcements triggered sharp sell-offs, with the S&P 500 plunging 9% in the first week of April, its worst weekly performance since 2020. Volatility spiked with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hitting the 60-level last week and closing at its highest level since the start of the Covid pandemic. A brief reprieve came on April 9, when Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, excluding those on China, which remained at 125%. This led to a historic rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, its largest single-day gain since October 2008. This back-and-forth has kept markets on edge. While the tech sector rallied on April 14, with Apple (AAPL) gaining 2.2% and chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) advancing, the uncertainty over future tariffs continues to weigh on investor confidence.

The question on every investor’s mind is whether the market has found a bottom after its recent turbulence. Several factors suggest caution including the temporary nature of electronic product exemptions and Trump’s signals of broader semiconductor tariffs keep markets vulnerable to policy shocks. Rising inflation expectations, contracting manufacturing activity, and a potential recession risk could pressure corporate earnings and consumer spending. However, there are reasons for optimism. The tech sector’s resilience, supported by tariff exemptions, has provided a buffer. Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have outperformed during recent volatility, suggesting investors are finding safe havens. Additionally, Trump’s willingness to pause or delay tariffs, as seen with the 90-day reprieve and potential auto tariff exemptions, indicates flexibility that could stabilize markets if negotiations progress.

The U.S. stock market’s recent moves reflect a tug-of-war between tariff-induced volatility and pockets of strength in earnings and tech exemptions. While the S&P 500’s recent gains offer hope, the combination of policy uncertainty, rising inflation, and weakening economic data suggests that a sustainable bottom may not yet be in place. Investors may continue remain cautious, focusing on sectors with resilience, such as tech and financials, while bracing for potential shocks from evolving trade policies.

Tune into the Schwab Network for live earnings breakdowns and more!

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email [email protected].

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement. 

Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.