Winners

Crypto (/BTC) – Donald Trump called for turnover at the top of the SEC on day one, according to perhaps the most concrete policy view espoused by Trump and his team. Regulatory pressure should come off crypto, but whether this administration will do anything else with Bitcoin or crypto is completely unclear. Per usual with crypto, beware of unfulfilled promises. Also, beware of the long-term bearish divergence in the chart of BTC still - it needs a big breakout from the $70k-range to open room to the upside.

U.S. Dollar (/DX) – some are going to think there’s some irony to this but there’s not, and we’re seeing it play out already in overnight action with the dollar up 1.5%, an absolutely monster rally for the currency. This should stand out as contrary to the framework you’ve heard from most gold bugs and bitcoiners, but it makes sense and doesn’t have to be seen as a wrecking ball for risk assets. The dollar may stay bid alongside interest rates as the economic status quo – U.S. is the best house on block – continues to hold.

Elon the Man, Elon the company (X, TSLA), Elon the idea – Musk's X proved itself the most powerful media force this cycle, and now he's got a foot in the White House. The good news is he's disproven the haters at every turn with regards to his ability to multitask. Trump seems to really be in awe of SpaceX and other moonshot projects so expect a fertile environment for exploration and technological risk-taking.

Dealmakers – Regulatory oversight and antitrust regression was a hallmark of the Biden/Harris administration. Mergers and acquisitions have been blocked every turn in every sector. That could change dramatically.

Prediction Markets like Kalshi, which were early in indicating a possible wide margin of victory for Trump – Pollsters flopped again in a big way, and if you believe that financial incentives discover truth in markets as I do, prediction markets should only get more accurate the more people trade them.

Losers

Powell – this is the biggest thing people in markets aren’t talking about. Powell still has lots of time left on his term, but how much does that mean if the Trump admin looks to shed upwards of millions of government jobs as indicated by Trump advisor Vivek Ramaswamy to me in our interview. The biggest myth in this entire political cycle is that the economy is in dire straits. There is a frustrating wealth gap in America no doubt, but the economy continues to surprise it every turn and defy all bearish expectations. The Federal Reserve's stewardship plays no small role in this; upheaval at the institution would be unwelcome by markets.

In between

Stocks and Bonds – Stock and bond markets have largely been driven by the economic situation and policy by the Fed. A deep deregulatory overhaul or lower taxes in theory could be a positive catalyst for American businesses, but tariffs could act the other way. Bonds are selling off this morning, but bonds have already been doing that and should have been selling off big time yesterday with an extremely impressive ISM Services Report. It's been my baseline assumption that volatility would drop quickly after the election, which is likely to be a good environment for stocks and higher yields, but whether it lasts will be a function of the usual economic indicators. 

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