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Market Prep for This Week

After a stellar week for the broad-based indexes, the market continues to be fueled by positive earnings and commentary around A.I. infrastructure demand, along with diminishing fears around the Iran conflict. Next week, economic data will take center stage as many of the major names on the earnings front have already been reported. Key economic datasets of focus will kick off on Tuesday with CPI, the 10-year bond auction, and the scheduled vote for Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination.
On the inflation front, the market is already bracing for a relatively hot print for headline CPI, with street consensus estimates calling for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in headline inflation and a more modest 0.3% month-over-month increase for Core Inflation. For the market to really be spooked by the inflation narrative, the print will need to come in substantially higher than current expectations — which is already a relatively high bar to clear.
On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index will round out the major inflationary metrics for the month, with the market expecting a 0.5% month-over-month increase. Be mindful that PPI is a notoriously difficult data point for economists to estimate, so the possibility of a volatile print, to either the upside or the downside, is meaningfully elevated. Also on Wednesday, the 30-year bond auction will give the market a sense of institutional demand for longer-dated government paper, with the 30-year hovering near the 5% level.
Rounding out the major economic data prints for the week is Retail Sales. While the initial assumption for many is that Retail Sales may be weak due to higher energy prices, it's worth remembering that the data is not adjusted for inflation. As a result, in higher inflationary periods Retail Sales tends to look relatively strong on the surface, even when key parts of the consumer economy, like dining out and restaurant sales, may be suffering underneath.
There is still a fair amount of earnings activity next week, especially among higher beta/growth names like Hims & Hers (HIMS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) , which reports Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, we'll get an update from Oklo (OKLO) after the close. Even though the company is still pre-revenue, the market will focus on conference call commentary around current projects and any new partnerships that could drive future growth for the small modular nuclear reactor company. On Wednesday after the close — arguably the biggest earnings print of the week — Cisco (CSCO) will report, providing an update on networking demand from a hardware perspective, along with a potential read on its cybersecurity business, where we've seen somewhat mixed results from competitors over the past week.
Heading into next week, the setup is one of cautious optimism balanced against a heavy macro calendar. The market has been thriving thanks to interest in AI infrastructure investments, which have shown relative strength despite geopolitical risk. But with CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, a 30-year auction, and a Fed chair confirmation all landing in a single week, there are plenty of catalysts that could drive markets.
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