Meta Platforms (META) is set to report 4Q 2025 earnings after the market close on January 28, 2026, and expectations are running high as investors weigh rapid AI driven momentum against mounting expense concerns.

Last quarter, the stock fell over 11% after raising the lower end of its Capex spend, which sent the shares tumbling. The company stated, “We currently expect 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $70-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $66-72 billion.”

Meta expects total revenues between $56 billion and $59 billion for this quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 4Q revenues is pegged at $58.40 billion, indicating an increase of 20.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings stands at $8.15 per share, suggesting growth of 1.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Meta results will hinge on advertising performance across Facebook, Instagram, and— increasingly—Reels and Threads. Advertising results are generally the major metric investors watch heavily for META, accounting for the majority of the social media company’s revenue.

AI implementations have enabled the company to deliver more relevant ads to consumers, boosting performance significantly over recent periods. Meta is using AI to tailor these ads, which is also leading to better conversion rates. This is exactly the kind of return on investment that the market wants to see, but Meta is having to spend a lot of money to deliver these results.

Eyeballs on their platforms is the main reason that advertisers choose to spend with Meta. Last quarter, Meta reported family daily active people of 3.54 billion on average, an increase of 8% year-over-year. They also reported average price per ad increased by 10% year-over-year.

The stock has risen nearly 4% over the last 12 months but remains 15% off its all-time high of $796.25 from last August. Despite the pullback, optimism is creeping back with the stock up 11% over the last four trading sessions as of yesterday’s closing price near $672. The stock recently broke back above its 50-Day Simple moving average with potential resistance at its 200-Day average near $678. The option market is pricing in a post-earnings one day move of +/- 7.5%, or about $50 in either direction.

The bottom line is that META enters earnings with strong user growth, robust ad fundamentals, and ambitious AI initiatives—but also elevated spending risk. Traders will watch for any confirmation of controlling spending and AI optimization per user across their platforms.

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