Micron Earnings in Focus

Micron (MU) reports 3Q earnings after the bell today. Amidst the latest headlines out of the Israel/Iran conflict, we’ve gotten away from the AI story, but it remains a huge driver of the market.

Zacks expects MU to report EPS of $1.59 (+156% year-over-year) and revenue of $8.84 billion (+30% year-over-year) – but note that it had a weaker quarter last year, juicing the comps. It is increasing market share as demand from datacenters continues to balloon.

Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron work in different areas of the chip industry. Micron focuses on memory and storage, while Nvidia specializes in processing power. AI systems need both types of chips to function. Micron also manufactures its own chips, while Nvidia outsources that to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Micron has its own foundry in Taiwan, but it has committed to building a $15 billion plant in Idaho that will be up and running by 2026, and four fabricators in upstate New York worth $100 billion, projected to go online in 2027. It already has a U.S. plant in Manassas, VA.

Note that the only other companies that can make the high-bandwidth memory chips it manufactures are South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung.

As long as Nvidia’s demand remains strong, Micron will likely be buoyed as well. Although memory chips are cheaper than processing chips, “multiple memory chips are needed to support each GPU or CPU.” Unlike Nvidia rivals Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD), Micron can complement rather than compete.

Micron stock has fallen since last year, down 8%. However, it is up 52% year-to-date. It slid last August after earnings and slid again after last quarter’s earnings. The stock has rallied since but is still below 52-week highs of $144.07.

With these huge infrastructure investments, Micron is betting that demand will remain strong, and that either through its homegrown footprint or continued innovation, it will remain the favored supplier of HBM chips.

The options market is implying a move of almost $10 on earnings, or about an 8% move, so this name could see some volatility on the report. It is also overbought on an RSI study, though that does not necessarily signal a downturn ahead.

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