Nike will report earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday, September 30th. As Nike prepares to report its fiscal first quarter 2026 earnings, the spotlight is on its ongoing turnaround strategy. The company is contending with significant challenges, including stiff competition, tariff headwinds, and a recent decline in sales. While shares have seen some stabilization, analysts are projecting a sharp year-over-year decline in both revenue and profit for the quarter.

Nike is expected to report $0.28 per share in earnings on $11 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -60% and -5%, respectively according to Zacks. While estimates have been stable lately, sentiment on the stock remains weak given expectations of an elongated recovery.

Nike is losing market share in key regions, especially China, to domestic players like Anta and Li-Ning. Emerging brands like Hoka (DECK) and On Holding (ONON) are also applying pressure globally. Ongoing tariff concerns, particularly with China, threaten margins. Last quarter, the company beat EPS and revenue expectations modestly but reported 4Q gross margin down 440bps at 40.3%.

The company is navigating a transition away from its previous direct-to-consumer (DTC) focus, with both DTC and wholesale revenue expected to decrease in the first quarter. While DTC margins are higher, the exposure from in-store and wholesale sales should expand the company’s footprint.

The market is waiting for commentary from CEO Elliott Hill on the progress of the company's ‘Win Now’ turnaround plan, which focuses on product innovation, marketing, and strengthening wholesale partnerships.

Last earnings, Hill stated, “Moving forward, we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we're making through our Win Now actions.” He continued, “As we enter a new fiscal year, we are turning the page and the next step is aligning our teams to lead with sport through what we are calling the sport offense. This will accelerate our Win Now actions to reposition our business for future growth."

Nike stock is down 8% this year as of Monday’s closing price and is down over 60% from its all-time high of $179.10 in late 2021. The Option Market is pricing in a +/- 7.6% move in the shares post earnings, roughly $5.30 in either direction.

The bar is low into tonight’s earnings report and the ‘Win Now’ strategy will be a crucial test for the company. While the headline numbers are expected to be weak, the market will be looking for signs of stabilization and progress on the company's turnaround plan. Management's commentary on the earnings call will likely be the most important factor influencing the stock's direction in the near term.

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email [email protected].

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement. 

Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.