Markets have been anticipating Nvidia (NVDA) 3Q earnings after the bell today for weeks. Zacks estimates it will report earnings per share of $1.00 (+47% year-over-year) and revenue of $46.14 billion (+54% year-over-year).

While this pace of growth is substantial, it has slowed since the beginning of the AI boom. Investor money is spreading to other parts of the industry, including auxiliaries like energy or software companies that can benefit from adding AI to their offerings.

Among chipmakers, Nvidia stands dominant, but rivals aren’t sleeping. AMD (AMD), generally considered a cheaper alternative, is racing to close the gap. CEO Lisa Su claims their latest chips are “outperforming” Nvidia’s with “greater efficiency.” The federal government took a 10% stake in Intel (INTC), one of the few companies that manufactures its own chips.

In this global arms race, supply is king. Nvidia chips are primarily made by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) abroad (though some capacity is moving to the U.S.). The machines to make semiconductors are largely produced by ASML (ASML), a Dutch company. The dominance and interdependence of all three companies create bottlenecks both through physical capacity and national security risks.

However, because of the complexity of the technology, for now they maintain a moat. As Intel and other players pour money into new foundries over the next few years, this could change the game. Nvidia is unlikely to take its production in-house, meaning it has to stay on the cutting edge of design to keep its expensive chips in demand.

Technology evolves constantly. It may feel like we’ve taken a recent leap with artificial intelligence, but basic AI has been around for a long time and people have been working on projects like these for decades.

While everyone is scrambling to add the technology – maybe creating a bubble, maybe not – a saturation point will emerge. The deluge of capex can’t last forever; investors won’t let it if it starts to show diminishing returns. Eventually, companies will have a “good enough” upgrade and ride that until the next tech cycle. Will Nvidia be leading that?

With NVDA carrying significant heft within the major indexes, every detail will matter. “Good” may not be good enough for a market that has sent its share prices soaring. Over the last year, the stock is up more than 40% and has gone nearly parabolic over the last few. The options market is implying a +/- $10 move post-earnings, or about 6%.

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