The DHL e-Commerce Americas CEO, Scott Ashbaugh, explains how the shipping giant is handling tariffs and changing consumer behavior. Investors should be aware that DHL (DHLGY) is an ADR and may have less liquidity than a regular stock on U.S. exchanges. That said, it recently hit all-time highs of 55.68, and is up more than 50% year-to-date and since last year.

Ashbaugh notes a pivot towards value, with shipping costs a major factor. This has made ground-based delivery more popular than air-based for cost effectiveness. He also points out an increase in average package weight, which he attributes to the “savvy of online merchants” enticing larger purchases.

“We braced for a big decline in volumes” when tariffs were announced in April, he says, but they didn’t see that drop. “Volume remained strong,” but they began to see a “steady downturn” in October and November, which has now been masked by “peak volumes” over the holidays. He thinks things could start to sink again in January.

“When times get tough, folks get creative.” Companies abroad are moving goods into the U.S. to fulfill orders domestically rather than shipping individual pieces internationally, allowing them to pay tariffs on the cost of goods rather than retail price.

DHL has a market cap of around $63 billion, while homegrown FedEx (FDX) comes in at $67.4 billion. Lagging DHL, FedEx (FDX) has seen single-digit growth in its stock – 4% vs last year and 1% year-to-date – recovering after cratering early this year around tariff news.

FedEx was slightly lower Friday after its Thursday night 2Q26 earnings report, which does not include holiday data but does contain holiday outlook. The quarter was strong, but investors are clearly worried about its future. Adjusted EPS was $4.82 on revenue of $23.5 billion, which beat estimates on top and bottom line. Cost reductions and higher U.S. shipment volumes drove strength.

However, guidance in the next few quarters disappointed Wall Street, which is pushing for higher profit growth. FedEx has marked around $1 billion in trade headwinds for 2026. It also took a charge of around $175 million to mitigate the impact of grounding aircraft after a UPS (UPS) cargo plane crashed on November 4.

Peak season could potentially disappoint as well, as analysts think some holiday demand was pulled forward by early retailer sales. Also, contrasting DHL and FedEx, DHL (based in Germany) makes most of its money internationally, while FedEx makes the majority of its revenue from domestic U.S. operations. That potentially puts more strain on DHL around trade policy.

The package giants are trucking along despite headwinds. Investors should watch the Supreme Court decision on tariffs; if reversed, retail prices could fall and consumer shopping habits could shift back. Separately, with continuing air traffic controller shortages and plane issues, ground logistics may be the way for these companies to move forward.

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