United Airlines (UAL) is set to report Q4 2025 earnings after the market close today, placing the stock back in focus as investors gauge whether recent operational momentum can offset margin pressure and lingering pricing challenges. Wall Street anticipates fourth-quarter EPS of $2.93, down roughly 10% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to climb about 5% to $15.37 billion. Management has leaned heavily into international expansion and premium cabin strategy, both crucial drivers heading into 2026. Last quarter, UAL guided to Q4 EPS of $3.00–$3.50, above then‑current expectations, citing a recovery in long‑haul demand and improvements in its loyalty ecosystem.

United Airlines has demonstrated robust revenue growth over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.8%. The company's operating margin stands at 8.85%, while the net margin is 5.64%. Capacity increased 7.2% last quarter which is historically seen as a headwind, but increased travel demand offset the gains in the number of routes. Recent internal notes flagged weakening passenger yields due to overcapacity and competitive discounting in domestic markets. PRASM (Premium Revenue per Seat Mile) remains stronger, and premium cabins continue outperforming standard fare classes. Any stabilization—or further pressure—will be central to the stock’s reaction.

United continues to face higher non‑fuel costs, primarily from wage increases and staffing requirements. Fuel price moderation has helped slightly, but margins remain sensitive. Analysts will closely watch commentary on 2026 cost guidance. UAL’s emphasis on long‑haul routes, alliances, and premium experiences has been a competitive differentiator. Management has previously highlighted strong traction in these segments and signaled expectations for meaningfully improving international Revenue per Average Seat Mile (RASM) in Q4.

MileagePlus continues to deliver robust gains, with loyalty revenues up over 9% last quarter. UAL has targeted doubling loyalty‑program EBITDA by decade’s end—a long‑term narrative the market increasingly values.

The stock has rallied 7% from year ago level’s as of Friday’s closing price and is just about 5% off its all-time high of $119.21 from earlier this month. The Option Market is pricing in a one-day +/- 6% move ($6.70) post earnings and implied volatility is relatively muted with its current IV Percentile at only 22%, despite the event risk. Travel continues to be in demand and expectations are elevated for United Airlines into their report.  Delta (DAL), its biggest competitor, already reported and the stock move was relatively muted post results. With United stock near all-time highs into the report, a beat and raise quarter may be needed to sustain the outperformance in the shares. 

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