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- Week Ahead: Fed Decision, Big Tech Earnings, Inflation Data Set Up Volatile July Finish
Week Ahead: Fed Decision, Big Tech Earnings, Inflation Data Set Up Volatile July Finish
George Tsilis
July 26, 2026
Markets head into the week of July 27 facing one of the busiest catalyst calendars of the summer, with the Federal Reserve decision, second-quarter GDP, PCE inflation, consumer confidence, and a wave of mega-cap earnings all arriving within a five-day stretch.
This follows a difficult week for risk assets, with oil volatility, rising yields, and investor concern over AI capital spending weighing on Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and broader growth sentiment.
About one-third of the S&P 500 is expected to report, making it the busiest week of second-quarter earnings season. The main economic policy event will be the July 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The focus will be Wednesday’s policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in a low probability chance, 35%, for a possible 25 basis-point hike next Wednesday, but that increases to about 80% at the September meeting. That makes the language especially important. A hold with hawkish guidance could keep pressure on the 2-year Treasury yield and growth stocks, while any softer tone on oil-driven inflation could help stabilize equities.
The economic calendar is heavy
Monday brings advance durable goods orders and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. Tuesday features Conference Board Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Thursday is the biggest macro day, with weekly jobless claims, the advance reading on second-quarter GDP, and June personal income and PCE inflation all due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Friday closes the week with the Employment Cost Index, final University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and the New York Fed’s core trend inflation reading.
The GDP and PCE combination may be the most important data pairing. If growth holds up while PCE inflation remains sticky, markets may have to price a Fed that stays restrictive longer. If growth slows and inflation cools, bonds could rally and help rate-sensitive sectors. However, a stagflationary mix of softer growth with stubborn inflation would be the hardest outcome for equities, especially after the recent move higher in oil and yields.
Earnings could matter just as much as the macro data
Major earnings reports include Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX), Coca-Cola (KO), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and PayPal (PYPL). After Alphabet’s post-earnings decline tied to higher AI spending, investors will be highly sensitive to hyperscaler capex commentary from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL).
The key question is whether AI spending is still being rewarded or whether investors are shifting from “growth at any cost” to return on invested capital.
Economic Events/Data Next Week (ET):
Monday 7/27 | Tuesday 7/28 | Wednesday 7/29 | Thursday 7/30 | Friday 7/31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8:30AM: Durable Goods Orders 10:30AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 11:30AM: 3- and 6-Month Bill Auction 1:00PM: 2- and 5-Year Note Auction | 8:15AM: ADP Employment Change Weekly 8:30 AM: Advance Goods Trade Balance (Jun) Advance Retail Inventories (Jun) Advance Wholesale Inventories (Jun) 9:00AM: S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY) (May) 10:00AM: CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 1:00PM: 7-Year Note Auction 4:30PM: API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul) FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins | 7:00AM: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul) 10:30AM: EIA Crude oil and Gasoline Stocks changes (Jul) 2:00PM: FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement 2:30PM: Federal Reserve Press Conference | 8:30AM: Core PCE Price Index (MoM and YoY) (Jun) Advance GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) (Q2) GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) PCE Price Index (MoM and YoY) (Jun) Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly) 11:30 AM: 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction | 8:30AM: Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 9:45AM: Chicago PMI (Jul) 10:00AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Final (Jul) University of Michigan 1- and 5-Year Inflation Expectations, Final (Jul) |
Earnings Reports Next Week (ET):
Monday 7/27 | Tuesday 7/28 | Wednesday 7/29 | Thursday 7/30 | Friday 7/31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Premarket: N/A | United Parcel Service (UPS), Coca-Cola (KO), Boeing (BA), PayPal (PYPL) | Procter & Gamble (PG), Boston Scientific (BSX), General Dynamics (GD), Vertiv Holdings (VRT) | Mastercard (MA), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Shell (SHEL), Altria Group (MO), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) | Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Linde (LIN), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) |
Postmarket: Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Nucor (NUE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Welltower (WELL), Whirlpool (WHR), F5 (FFIV), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Universal Health Services (UHS) | Visa (V), Ford Motor (F), KLA (KLAC), Waste Management (WM), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Teradyne (TER) | Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), Starbucks (SBUX), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Carvana (CVNA), Fortinet (FTNT) | Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coinbase Global (COIN), Reddit (RDDT), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Strategy (MSTR), Roblox (RBLX), First Solar (FSLR), DexCom (DXCM), GoDaddy (GDDY) | N/A |
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